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文　章　主　題：股市房地產不漲才怪！ kurich 2010/08/02 19:23:46 觀看此篇文章需付費理財幣 10 元。   kurich 2010/09/13 17:40:09 水星才剛剛結束逆行............ 台北股市就大漲200點 3大高價股漲停 台股上8千 更新日期:2010/09/13 15:49 （中央社記者許湘欣台北13日電）兩岸經濟協議(ECFA)正式生效、高價電子股價飆漲，上市高價股3檔全部漲停，台股今天開高走高，一舉衝破8000點。 國際股市走穩，台股近期高檔震盪整理後，今天由ECFA點火，在類股齊揚下，一舉飛越8000點大關。終場加權指數以8091.3點作收，大漲201.19點，成交金額達新台幣1463.94億元。 盤面以ECFA概念族群最亮麗，汽車、塑膠、航運到金融等，除了族群上揚，更有代表性個股冒出頭來。 裕日車今天即以加速認列大陸轉投資收益，前3季賺逾一個股本題材，開盤就跳空漲停，每股103.5元；金融股指數也一舉站上所有均線，彰銀爆出約10萬張大量，居上市個股成交量冠軍。 航運股則在華航帶領下，有3%以上漲幅。早收清單中受惠許多的塑膠類股也個股齊揚，台塑更創下金融海嘯以來新高，收在75元。 今天創新高的不止ECFA概念股，股王宏達電挾英國倫敦舉行新機發表會題材，股價今天開高走高，衝破700元大關，收在716元，與股后大立光收盤668元雙雙漲停，都刷新金融海嘯以來新高。 緊追宏達電、大立光之後的晶華，同步亮燈漲停收在524元，帶領觀光族群漲幅超過5%。上市前三高價股今天都站上漲停。 除了ECFA概念股一馬當先，今天所有兩岸概念股可說同步發光，不僅觀光，中概百貨通路也一片紅，統一超收在125元，也刷新金融海嘯以來新高。 群益葛萊美基金經理人蔡志仁指出，台股想要繼續上攻，除了量能須持續擴增，電子權值股和金融股後市也須持續發威，在市場資金仍充裕的環境下，台股有機會挑戰前高。 大昌證券也表示，指數下檔有撐，台股欲小不易，且上週電子股成交比重已接近七成，顯示資金有回流至電子的跡象，後市除了中概內需等族群，選股可留意面板、發光二極體 (LED)、蘋果概念的iPad、iPhone及IC設計等重量級電子股。(圖表為中央社製作)990913   kurich 2010/08/30 19:47:47 Short-Term Geocosmics So what was so important about early last week, when equities and Silver bottomed, while Treasuries and the Japanese Yen topped out? Well, it was within three trading days of three important “Level 1” (strongest) geocosmic signatures that unfolded August 20 and 21. These included the Sun-Neptune opposition, Venus-Mars conjunction, and the 32-37 year waning square of Saturn and Pluto. On top of that, Mercury also turned retrograde on August 20. Combinations like this, so close in time to one another, usually produce a reversal within three trading days. This was no exception. How long this reversal will last, however, is another matter, because under Mercury retrograde, reversals oftentimes do not last long. More often than not, big price thrusts in any direction usually lose momentum quickly, i.e. within 4 trading days. We also note that these reversals occurred close to the Virgo-Pisces full moon of Tuesday, August 24. Lunations in mutable signs seem to have the most correspondence to reversals in many financial markets, as opposed to lunations in other types of signs. The next series of important geocosmic signatures starts up on September 4. An abundance of signatures will then unfold lasting through Venus retrograde on October 8. Prepare yourself for another roller coaster ride during that 5-week period, for in addition to ending with the powerful Venus retrograde, we will also encounter the second of three Jupiter-Uranus conjunction passages on September 18. These are two of the highest historical correspondences of all geocosmic signatures to primary or greater cycles in equities, as reported in the studies of “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles.” Longer-Term Thoughts For some time now I have been writing about a “bubble” in financial assets. More recently (since June) I have referenced that such a bubble seems to building in U.S. Treasuries. But the concept of “bubbles” means different things to different analysts. In the strictest numerical sense, a “bubble” is a phenomenon where a financial asset increases sharply in price without any notable and normal declines. In almost all cases, the advance of that asset is at least 100% of a price from which the move up started. More often than not, the increase is 4-10 times higher. Bubbles have correlations to Financial Astrology. They pertain to Jupiter and/or Uranus, either in the skies at a given point in time, or to the chart of particular entity associated with a financial market. The NASDAQ Composite’s tech bubble started from a base of 750 when Uranus entered Aquarius in 1995 to its high of over 5000 in March 2000, as Uranus advanced to the last third of Aquarius, squared by Saturn and Jupiter in Taurus. Aquarius is associated with technology, and the NSADAQ is a tech-heavy index. Or you could look at the bubble in Crude Oil as Uranus moved into Pisces in early 2003 from a base of about $25/barrel to a high of $147.27 in July 2008, when Uranus was in the last third of Pisces. Pisces is the sign associated with Crude Oil. In each case, the ensuing decline took prices down 70-80% within 6-24 months. But there is another way to look at bubbles rather in terms of multiples of 4-10 times. Bubbles can coincide with periods of excessive greed or fear, driving investors to flock to a particular investment and thus drive its value sharply higher. This is the case with Treasuries right now, in my opinion, and the basis for my concerns that Treasuries are forming a “Double Bubble Trouble.” There is no way that Treasury Bonds or Notes will appreciate 4-10 times their price at the base from which the move up began, due to the way Treasuries are valued. From a base of 95-105 in 1999 and 2007, Ten Year Treasury Notes rallied to an all-time high of 130/25 on December 19, 2008, as the Federal Reserve Board experienced its 12-year Jupiter return. That was also in the peak of the Financial Panic. It fell back to 115 as recently as April 2010, but is now approaching the 130 area again (the high last week was close to 127). The reason I suspect this is a bubble is because of the psychology behind this sharp run up in the last 4 months. It is due to excessive fear, again, as investors have piled much more money into the “safety” of Treasuries than they have the stock market. I see this as a dangerous trend – even a “bubble” - due to the psychological factors. But I also see it as “bubble” from the Financial Astrology point of view. Jupiter and Uranus have been in conjunction in the very early degrees of Aries. And this forms a T-square to the Sun-Pluto opposition in the Federal Reserve Board chart (created December 23, 1913). The Fed and the financial products it affects through its decisions (such as Treasuries) are thus akin to a “bubble.” Many astrologers were baffled that the astrological midsection of the Cardinal Climax did not produce any spectacular events, such as another financial crisis or political overthrow, or start of a new world war. Yet this simply demonstrates a lesson in how astrology works. It is not “causal” in terms of human activity, although it may be causal in terms of natural phenomenon, such as the severe heat and dryness that led to the fires and drought in Russia, and the floods that displaced hundreds of thousands in China and Pakistan. Astrology correlated to human activity is more “synchronistic” than causal. In the thoughts of the great Swiss psychologist and astrologer Carl Jung, “Every moment of time has its own unique quality, and whatever is born in that moment takes on that quality.” So as I approach the study of astrology, it is not from the viewpoint of predicting an event related to the meaning of each planet and sign. I am more interested in “what is born in that moment” in which an unusual cosmic pattern unfolds. To me, that is the key to understanding what the outcome will be. As I see it, there were at least three important economic and mundane policies and decisions that were “birthed” in the July 21-August 21 Cardinal Climax midsection. And those decisions commence the cycles that will soon grow into something transformative regarding our economic future. In fact, they have already begun. As I stated in the Forecast 2010 Book, the year 2010 may be the most important year of our collective life as seen from the study of astrology. We have choices going into the summer of 2010. But by then, the choices will have been made and it will be very difficult to turn back the consequences that those choices will generate. What were those choices and how do they relate to astrology? The first was the Financial Regulatory Reform Act of July 21, which took place as Saturn entered Libra, and with Jupiter and Uranus opposite in Aries. Each of these transits squared the USA Venus and Jupiter. Venus and Jupiter are the “money” planets, and this can be a classical bankruptcy aspect related to spending more than one can afford. And then on August 10, the Federal Reserve Board decided to abandon its pre-announced plan of an “exit strategy” by drawing down its balance sheet. Instead it decided to reflate its portfolio by resuming purchases of long-term Treasuries. It did this as Jupiter was stationary, in exact square to Pluto (an aspect of holding too much debt), forming a T-square to the Fed’s Sun-Pluto opposition. When Jupiter is involved in these kinds of aspects, there can be a tendency to misjudge via over-estimation and exaggeration. That’s the astrological perspective, as I see it. Decisions were made and there will be consequences that will grow out of these new initiatives, and they will have an impact upon life as we know it, for better or worse, per the dynamics of the most potent line up of geocosmic signatures in our lifetime. As above, so below. The third decision that was made during this period occurred last Saturday, August 21. That was when Russia loaded the rods for a nuclear reactor in Iran. It was on the day of Saturn square Pluto, but also still at the beginning of the 78-year period when the progressed Mars in the USA chart has turned retrograde. Mars rules one’s military outlook. If anyone says that the heart of the Cardinal Climax was a non-event, I beg to differ. I believe it was every bit as important as financial astrologers throughout the world expected. And the markets are reflecting this.   阿達茲 2010/08/10 00:08:23 那年初顧老大曾預測八九月是這波的高點是否要再修正了呢？ 變成2010五月是低點再往上走到2011年九月？？   kurich 2010/08/09 11:59:09 太陽黑子活動趨勢向上的時期....股市以作多為宜!!! 「太陽海嘯」今襲地球 恐擾通訊 2010-08-04 【明報專訊】太陽表面周日兩度發生劇烈爆炸，觸發強烈太陽風暴，釋出數以噸計高速帶電粒子，在香港時間今日直撲地球。太陽表面活動過去數年處於低潮，今次是近年最大規模爆發，被形容為「太陽海嘯」。專家對「太陽海嘯」的猛烈程度估計紛紜，但如果很劇烈，將干擾人造衛星影響通訊服務，而當帶電粒子衝擊地球磁場時，會在兩極產生強烈的極光，連在較近赤道的地方也可看到。 太陽黑子冒大火球 美國太空總署周日觀察到，太陽表面一個直徑猶如地球的巨大太陽黑子，冒起龐大的火球。英國太陽專家格林（Lucie Green）說，太陽表面爆炸形成「一場壯觀的煙花，爆炸同時在太陽兩處表面發生，激起的太陽風暴直向地球噴發，情况極為罕見」。 她解釋，爆炸是由於太陽大氣的巨大磁場失衡，令太陽引力無法拉着表面粒子，情况就如「受壓的彈簧一下子被釋放，凌空彈起」。當首次爆炸發生後，幾乎半個太陽的大氣磁場出現變化，令太陽表面再發生第2次爆炸。兩次爆炸掀起的太陽風暴，以不同速度向1.5億公里外的地球進發。 哈爾濱北京或看到極光 太陽風暴中的電磁輻射，可影響地球的大氣層和電離層，對電波通訊造成干擾，甚至可能引起地球強烈的磁場變化（磁暴），影響電網及航空運輸，電子設施、導航裝置和衛星都可能失效。另外，電磁輻射抵達地球時將衝擊地球磁場，令極光現象加劇，估計北極光將南移，原本只有靠近北極圈才能目睹的北極光，在北半球，遠至美國密歇根州都可看到。以此緯度推算，中國哈爾濱甚至北京也有可能看到極光。黑龍江漠河是中國現時觀測北極光的最佳觀測地。 今年4月，美國國際電訊衛星公司（Intelsat）的「銀河15號」（Galaxy 15）通訊衛星報銷，就可能與當時的太陽風暴有關。災難片《2012》及《地球毁滅密碼》均描述強烈太陽風暴。美國太陽物理學專家費希爾聲稱，由於太陽磁能（magnetic energy）每22年達到高峰，而太陽黑子的數量就於每11年達到最高值，這兩種情况都會在2013年同時發生，到時一旦出現超級太陽風暴，可能對美國造成比颶風「卡特里娜」嚴重20倍的經濟損失。 這篇文章最後由 kurich 在 2010/08/09 15:30:41 重新編輯！   kurich 2010/08/07 14:43:09 以下引用由 阿達茲 在 2010/08/07 10:48:50 所發表的內容： 所以會一路漲到2011年？展開第三波的多頭行情嗎？ 2011年9月....2008.11月3955點+34月   kurich 2010/08/07 14:24:13 主升段已發動 下周攻堅8千 更新日期:2010/08/07 03:23 記者吳姿瑩／台北報導 工商時報【記者吳姿瑩／台北報導】 本周大盤指數持續攻堅，加權指數一度攻過8,000點，本波自6月上旬7,048點以來，大盤已上升9周，成交量也擴增到1,500億以上，富邦投顧總經理蕭乾祥認為，台股多頭早已啟動，今年1月的8,395點是台股多頭初升段，自元月開始的回檔修正，其中最低達到7,032點，至今整理已達7個月，表示第二波修正已經結束，台股第三波主升段，已經發動，後續仍須帶量（1,200億以上）突破下降壓力區。 另一有利因素就是陸股表現，由於大陸股市於去年8月就開始整理，是最早整理的股市之一，整理時間夠久，打底已經完成，未來不會再下探，如果陸股持續走高，將有利於台股表現，尤其對中概股，更具有拉抬的作用。 至於台股佈局的方向，蕭乾祥認為，本波漲勢健康，傳產、金融、航運輪動，而後續的關鍵，在於電子股，自7,000點以來，由於市場擔心，電子產業旺季不旺，所以本波電子類股，走勢明顯最弱，未來電子是否轉強，接續傳產金融的輪漲，是為後續台股能否攻堅的最重要因素。 蕭乾祥認為，投資人布局方向應以均衡為主，避免側重於某一類股。蕭乾祥認為，未來電子股也有可能加入輪動行列，而電子股選股的重點有：﹝1﹞創新題材；﹝2﹞下半年景氣持續暢旺的科技產業；﹝3﹞能夠成為未來主軸科技的產業。 寶來投信投資長劉興唐認為，短線8,000點以上有短壓，但較大的壓力在8,200點，所以下周台股面臨層層的壓力，短線恐怕會拉回，劉興唐認為，台股還是在一個大格局的區間中整理，整理區間在7,500至8,200點之間。 未來劉興唐看好的類股有五類：﹝1﹞金融：他認為金融已開始走中長多，若遇短線拉回，將是絕佳的介入時機；﹝2﹞中概：中國已開始轉型，從出口大國轉為內需大國，從製造大國轉為服務大國，中國的長線基本面非常強，中概股也是長多的類股；﹝3﹞汽車零組件：汽車零組件在第四季到明年第一季，是傳統旺季，旺季效應可期，加上中國汽車的內需，還是非常強，汽車汰換對汽車零組件的需求，高度成長，而且此類股本益比還是處於相對低檔水準；﹝4﹞電子股：看好觸控面板，因為第四季將有新的觸控面板公司上市效應，太陽能來自歐洲的訂單暢旺，尤其是長晶切晶的公司，業績最旺；﹝5﹞智慧型手機品牌公司：業績高度成長，將享受較高本益比。   阿達茲 2010/08/07 10:48:50 以下引用由 kurich 在 2010/08/03 16:27:13 所發表的內容： 台股繼續以「輪動策略」，今天轉由傳產接棒，繼續推升指數往8000點挺進。以價量關係來看，今天指數繼續收紅，成交量能也同步放大，價量配合仍然良好，一般技術分析者認為2007年10月是上次多頭高點，以此推算34個月後的空投結束時間點是2010年8月。 筆者另類看法是量比價先行，2007年的鉅量是7月，所以2010年的5月出 ... 所以會一路漲到2011年？展開第三波的多頭行情嗎？   Steven 2010/08/05 23:27:26 胡錦濤的中共中央總書記任期到2012年10月 胡錦濤的國家主席任期到2013年3月 誰會接班我不知道耶 大家覺得馬英九會連任成功嗎? 這篇文章最後由 steven 在 2010/08/05 23:29:56 重新編輯！

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